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Doug Leeper
Hi all:

I've created this new topic for communications pertaining to the District's ongoing development of a response to the panel's initial peer review report.

District staff are developing the response document and updating the draft minimum flows report this month to support the panel's development of a final peer review report in June.

Doug Leeper
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Doug Leeper

Hi Peter:

One of your original, preliminary comments referenced a 2017 NOAA document:

Considering sea level rise effect on MFL is commendable. The sea level rise values, which are based on the USACE study in 2013, appear to be at least 50% lower than those recommended by NOAA (2017) which is the leading U.S. climate agency. Are future predictions on precipitation, wind, atmospheric temperature, land use, and storms all incorporated into the new MFL?

Could you please provide a copy of the 2017 NOAA document (or at least a more detailed reference) for us to use for our ongoing consideration of potential sea level rise effects on salinity in the Lower Peace/Shell System?

Thanks,

Doug Leeper

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xchen
Dr. Sheng,

I got the following NOAA SLC estimates. Please confirm. Thanks!

XinJian

Scenarios for FORT MYERS      
NOAA2017 VLM: 0.00151 feet/yr     
All values are expressed in feet     

Year

NOAA2017NOAA2017NOAA2017NOAA2017NOAA2017NOAA2017NOAA2017
VLMLowInt-LowIntermediateInt-HighHighExtreme
2000-0.34-0.34-0.34-0.34-0.34-0.34-0.34
2010-0.33-0.25-0.21-0.15-0.08-0.02-0.02
2020-0.31-0.08-0.020.120.250.350.38
2030-0.30.050.150.380.610.840.94
2040-0.280.210.350.671.031.41.66
2050-0.270.380.541.031.562.152.54
2060-0.250.510.741.462.223.073.69
2070-0.240.640.91.892.944.124.97
2080-0.220.771.12.383.795.276.48
2090-0.210.871.262.94.686.588.19
2100-0.190.971.433.435.668.0210.02
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PeterSheng
XinJian,

Here is the Excel file with the Regional Sea Level (RSL) predicted by NOAA (2017) for Fort Myers.
I recommend using the 0.3-MED, 1.0-MED, and 2.0-M values. My numbers are in cm, and yours are in ft, but they seem to agree.
Peter Sheng
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xchen
Dr. Sheng,

Thanks. I converted the above table to cm and used 2000 as the base level, the numbers matched those in your table exactly.

As a result, the NOAA-predicted SLRs during 2010 through 2035 would be 0.38' (11.58 cm), 0.68' (20.57 cm), and 1.14' (34.75 cm) for low (0.3-MED), intermediate (1.0-MED), and high (2.0-MED) estimates, respectively.

XinJian
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PeterSheng
Xinjian,

Thanks! I am glad we got the same numbers!

Peter Sheng
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David Tomasko
Worth considering - normalize the SLR projections with 2020 as the start date, not 2010.  If you use the SLR calculator itself, rather than rely on someone else's results table, you can pick any start date you want.  After all, what people really care about is the change from existing conditions, rather than a default date of 2010, for example. 
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Doug Leeper
The District staff response to the panel's initial peer review report and a revised version of the draft minimum flows report for the Lower Peace River and Lower Shell Creek are attached for the panel's consideration. Updates made to the draft minimum flows report are noted with yellow highlighting.

The panel will discuss these documents during their review teleconference on June 8, 2020.
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PeterSheng
Doug,

Here is the NOAA report that I referred to. 

Peter
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David Tomasko
Peter and Laura:

For our Panel meeting this coming Monday, let's all review the District response, and the revised MFL, and have our general thoughts ready for discussion.  if you'd like to summarize your thoughts on the District response in an email, please do so.  But I don't think that we need to have a "formal" write up of your thoughts as we did on the preliminary panel report.  Based on our discussion Monday, I will develop a draft second report to hand out to you - potentially within next week.  This will allow us to deliver our second report for internal review amongst ourselves, and deliver to the District our "final" second report well within out contractual timeline.

Again, please review not only the District response, but the revised Draft MFL, and have your comments ready for discussion at Monday's next Panel meeting.

Thanks!

Dave
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PeterSheng
Dave,
Will do.
Thanks,
Peter
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lbedinger
Sounds good.
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Doug Leeper
Microsoft Word version of the District staff response to the panel's initial peer review report is attached, as requested by Dave Tomasko during the panel's June 8, 2020 teleconference. The file will be used to assist in the preparation of a draft version of the panel's final peer review report.
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